Patriots WR Chad Ochocinco

 move by the Pats.  Ocho is slated to be the Patriots new #1 receiver, and thus Tom Brady’s favorite target.  But what are the realistic expectations for #85?  He is not a deep threat, and approaching his mid-30’s.  Here are some facts that may temper your enthusiasm:

 -         He hasn’t played in 16 games since 2007.

-          He’s never caught 100 passes in a season, and hasn’t caught at least 90 passes since 2007.

-          He’s only had 10 TD’s once – in 2003.

-          In 2 of the last 3 seasons, he has not reached 1,000 receiving.

-          He had only 4 TD’s last season, and they came against some pretty weak defenses – Buffalo, Atlanta, Indianapolis, and the Patriots.

-          In the last 3 seasons, he’s eclipsed 100 yards receiving only 5 times.

So what do these numbers mean?  One would think that Ochocinco’s numbers should improve given that Tom Brady will be feeding him the ball rather than Carson Palmer.  Palmer, was no slouch but a competent NFL quarterback for a few years.  The truth is that Brady has a vast array of weapons – Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez – and it’s no secret that he likes to spread the ball around. 

With that being said, Chad Ochocinco doesn’t necessarily profile to be a true #1 receiver as much as another cog in a well-oiled, possession passing machine that is the Patriots offense.  This is not a knock on Ocho, he is a good player, but those who are expecting a second coming of Randy Moss are fooling themselves.  He will big a big contributor and will take a lot of pressure off the other receivers, but don’t count on Pro Bowl-like numbers.  A reasonably educated guess for his production would be 75 receptions, around 900 yards, and 8 TD’s.

Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury

 stake for this weekend’s series at Fenway Park.  Both teams are virtually certain to make the playoffs, as the Los Angeles Angels, the only presumptive challenge to the Wild Card, sit 8 games back with just under 50 games left to play. 

Home field advantage in baseball is not as important as ensuring that your pitching rotation is set up properly for the Division Series.  With such a comfortable lead, look for both teams to give starters like Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia some rest in favor of younger pitchers one rosters expand in September.  Both teams play extremely well at home and on the road, so there isn’t a clear benefit to expending all energy at the end of the year for an arbitrary division title. 

To be honest, there may be a benefit to clinching the Wild Card rather than the division, as wining the division will probably meaning facing Detroit’s ace Justin Verlander twice in a short series, as opposed to going to Texas to face the likes of C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando in a hitter’s ballpark.  If you could get an honest answer from either team, they’d probably tell you that they’d choose Texas if they could pick their opponent. 

Even though the stakes aren’t that high right now, and they still have 87 more games to play against one another, the good news is that Red Sox vs. Yankees always equals entertaining baseball.  Purists, journalists, and umpires will complain about the length of the game, saying that 4-plus hours at the ballpark is too much, but I’m sure they’d all be more than happy to get real jobs in this economy than get paid to watch baseball.  This weekend should be fun.

However this is all in the past, and a new season is upon us. So what did we miss? As it turns out not too much. Tom Brady wore a ridiculous hat at the Kentucky Derby and went watersliding in Mexico. Free agency has yet to begin, and the salary cap is back in effect after taking a sabbatical in 2010. Many teams such as the Jets will have to make cuts to get under, but the Patriots are in decent shape. The Pats will have just under $7 million to spend under the new salary cap figure of approximately $120 million. Two long-time Patriots – Matt Light, and Kevin Faulk are both free agents, and will probably not be returning. Sebastian Vollmer figures to take Light’s left tackle spot with rookie first round pick Nate Solder taking Vollmer’s place on the right. The emergence of Danny Woodhead, as well as second round pick Shane Vereen makes Faulk expendable.

Free Agency opens Friday and is anticipated to be crazy, as training camp will also be opening for many teams as well. There will be a frenzy of activity as teams rush to get player acclimated to their respective systems. The Pats will probably not make a giant splash in free agency, but one name that keeps coming up in rumors is Cleveland Browns’ DE/OLB Matt Roth. Roth hasn’t put up big sack numbers (3.5 in 2010), but fits the prototypical Belichickian OLB profile (cheap, 6’4”, 275 lbs). He could add some depth to a linebacking corps that just lost Tully Banta-Cain to abdominal surgery.

The Pats will also have to sign their own pciks with some of that money as well, including former Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling. Dowling is a big, physical corner that can help immediately in nickel and dime packages. He will supplement a position that alreasy features Pro-Bowler Devin McCourty, and Leigh Bodden who is returning from injury. Although the pass-rush may not be great, the Pats will at least have the corners to help create coverage sacks.

The Patriots enter the 2011 season as a virtual lock to go back to the playoffs. At this point, the question is how long the window remains open. Brady is now 34, and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett was drafted in the third round to be his apparent heir. Brady has made it clear he plans on playing for a long time. Hopefully his body agrees with his heart, but if not perhaps Mallett will be the one who will keep the Pats a contender in the next 5 to 7 years.

 This injury could not have come at a worse time for the Sox, as Clay Buchholz continues to nurse a sore back, and John Lackey (5-8, 7.47 ERA) continues to get hit around like batting practice. The pitching staff will have to continue to get good performances from Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield in the meantime.

While there may be no hope for Lackey, who has faced questions about injuries himself, the rest of the staff has been solid. Alfredo Aceves, who has been up-and-down, will also get a few starts. In other Sox injury news, there is LF Carl Crawford and his hamstring. Crawford seemed to finally be putting it together before he pulled it, and will most likely return at Baltimore in a couple of weeks. His addition could help compensate for the lackluster J.D. Drew, who could be pushed out of the lineup by Josh Reddick in the final year of his deal. Many question if Drew has check out already and is alreasy retired in his own mind. Marco Scutaro also continues to play decently in the absence of oft-injured shortstop Jed Lowrie.

 Even though the Red Sox had a horrendous start to the year, and have had numerous injuries that would kill the chances of a lesser team, they are in prime position to return to the postseason. As long as Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis stay hot, they should be able to stave off the Tampa Bay Rays, who seem like the only legitimate threat at the Sox’ chance at the Wild Card.

Free Agent Defenseman James Wisniewski

 Champion Chicago Blackhawks, who had to tradeoff much of their team to stay under the salary cap, the Bruins are in a good position to make some minor upgrades while keeping their young core intact.  Let’s take a look at exactly where the Bruins stand as free agency hits this Friday, July1.

The Bruins have approximately $8 million to play with heading into free agency.  However, if Marc Savard retires as expected, this figure could go up to as much as $12 million.  There aren’t many players for the Bruins to worry about resigning, but one Restricted Free Agent who could be due for a large raise is Brad Marchand, whose 21 goals during the regular season, and 11 goals in 25 playoff games could lead to what many speculate could be a payday of around $4 million per year.

With the retirement of winger Mark Recchi, veterans Michael Ryder and defenseman Tomas Kaberle are the other two free agents.  Ryder could be back with a paycut from his $4 million dollar salary from 2010-11, as he is a favorite of Coach Claude Julien, who has coached him in junior hockey, as well as with the Montreal Canadiens.  Ryder was extremely valuable in the playoffs, however, he did have numerous lapses during the regular season, and management may want to go in a different direction. 

Kaberle was supposed to be the puck-moving defenseman that the Bruins lacked when they acquired him from the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, but his lack of physicality was exposed during the playoffs as he was knocked off many pucks in the corners and had some untimely turnovers.  Still, the Bruins brass think that a full season of Kaberle could be a benefit as he has more time to learn Julien’s system.  If this is the case, it would probably have to be for less than the $4.25 million he made in 2010-11.

Looking at the various options in the free agent market, the Bruins say they are not going to be “big players” and probably won’t be in play for a big target like Dallas Stars center Brad Richards, or Tampa Bay Lightning center Simon Gagne.  There are a few players available however that could come at reasonable prices.  One of these is Canadiens defenseman James Wisniewski.  Wisniewski had 51 points and 10 goals (7 on the power play) in a season split between the New York Islanders and the Canadiens.  He is just 27 years old, and could cure the ills of the Bruins power play.  Another name to consider is Vancouver Canucks d-man Christian Ehrhoff, however thee is much speculation that he will return to Vancouver, even at a discount. 

As for a potential replacement for Ryder, one name the Bruins may consider is Carolina Hurricanes winger Erik Cole.  Injuries took their toll on him in the past few seasons, but he stayed completely healthy in 2010-11 as he played all 82 games and netted 26 goals and 52 points.  The downside is that he’s 32 years old, and that the numerous injuries will eventually catch up to him.  Other reasonable options may include the Philadelphia Flyers Nikolai Zherdev and Ville Leino or the Washington Captials’ Brooks Laich. 

If the Bruins make a few minor tweaks, they can stay atop the Eastern Conference, but it sertianly won’t be easy.  The Pittsburgh Penguins will have both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin back, the Capitals will try and pull them selves together, and the Flyers may have finally found their goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov, not to mention the challenge of dealing with the Canadiens 6 times a year.  Either way, it should be good season that ends with the B’s in the playoffs.

No other city has been as successful in all four major sports in such a short period of time.  Boston has won championships in all four major sports in a 7 year span (2004 Red Sox, 2004 Patriots, 2008 Celtics, 2011 Bruins).  The city that comes the closest is of course New York, who had teams win championships in all four sports in a span of 13 years (1973 Knicks, 1977 Yankees, 1980 Islanders, 1986 Giants).  Following New York, it took Chicago 25 years to complete their grand slam (1985 Bears, 1991 Bulls, 2005 White Sox, 2010 Blackhawks).

Other major cities with four teams pale in comparison.  Philadelphia (1975 Flyers, 1980 Phillies, 1983 76ers) and Detroit (1984 Tigers, 1989 Pistons, 1997 Red Wings), have had three championships fairly close together, but neither the Eagles nor Lions have been able to win a Superbowl to make it four. 

Los Angeles (1983 Raiders, 1985 Lakers, 1988 Dodgers) just missed the Grand Slam when Wayne Gretzky’s Kings lost in the 1993 Stanley Cup Final against Montreal. If you count Anaheim as part of L.A, they completed the Grand Slam in 23 years when the Anaheim Ducks won the Stanley Cup in 2006.

Dallas (1993 Cowboys, 1999 Stars, 2011 Mavericks) came close when the Texas Rangers lost the 2010 World Series against the Giants.  Miami (1973 Dolphins, 1997 Marlins, 2006 Heat) may get close if the Florida Panthers ever come close to resembling a real hockey team, although they did get swept in the 1996 Stanley Cup Final, so they have that going for them.

The list gets weaker when you consider the other four sport cities such as Washington (1978 Bullets, 1983, 1987, 1991 Redskins), Minneapolis (1987 & 1991 Twins), and Denver (1996 & 2001 Avalanche, 1997 & 1998 Broncos), who have had multiple winners, but their success limited to a few sports.  Phoenix (2001 Diamondbacks) is pulling up the four sport city rear.  Atlanta, which just lost four sport status, has only the 1995 Braves to thank.

The run of dominance by Boston sports teams is significant in the length of time in which it has occurred.  Seven championships in 10 years is remarkable, but what is even crazier to fathom is that it could have been even more.  Had the Patriots won in 2007 against the Giants, and the Celtics in 2010 versus the Lakers, we’d be talking about 9 championships in 10 years.  Times are very good in Beantown.

A very hungry Alexandre Burrows

 the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.  It would reveal that karma and justice have prevailed, as there has been no more reviled team in recent memory than the whining, pandering Miami Heat, a team that only a Nike marketing executive could look upon with loving eyes.  With the above being stated, if the Vancouver Canucks win Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight in Boston, it will ultimately prove that if there is any sort of heavenly being who oversees the rights and wrongs of the sports universe, then he is truly dead. 

The Vancouver Canucks have made the Miami Heat look loveable by comparison.  A team that was regarded as “Canada’s Team” at the outset of this series has engaged itself in embarrassing fashion.  From their acting and diving on the ice which would make such highly regarded thespians as Keanu Reeves jealous, to the finger biting of winger Alexandre Burrows, to the cheap shot to the head by Aaron Rome which left Bruins winger Nathan Horton with a severe concussion, the Canucks have not been winning many fans outside of the Pacific Northwest.  Their play has turned many would-be Boston-haters against them, which for those trolls is saying a lot. 

As a life-long hockey fan, it is tough for me to recall a team of a championship caliber that I have disliked with such vitriol.  Memories of the 1996 Colorado Avalanche come to mind, in particular Claude Lemieux boarding Detroit’s Kris Draper in such a way in which Draper had to have his face reconstructed.  This team is surely the clear winner as of now.  I also have numerous childhood memories of the Montréal Canadiens of the 80’s and early 90’s who dispatched the Bruins from the playoffs on almost an annual basis on their way to the Cup, which still haunt me to this very day.  If the Canucks triumph, in my mind they have truly superseded the ‘96 Avs as the team I will look back upon with the most disgust. 

The tip of the iceberg with this particular club was the finger biting incident in Game 1.  If there is any sort of higher power in the sports kingdom, surely they would not allow one who bites the fingers of his opponents to prevail.  Especially when the bitee is Patrice Bergeron, who is one of the more respected NHL veterans, one would hope not.  Surely they would not allow those who act as if they have been gunned down by an AR-15 when fighting for the puck.  Furthermore, one would hope that those who go headhunting to unsuspecting players far after they had passed the puck on would not be entitled to the glory of Lord Stanley’s silver chalice, however here the Canucks are, 1 win away from sipping from hockey’s Holy Grail. 

The Bruins are no saints either, but they are far from the pond scum which was used to create the likes of Maxim Lapierre, Alexandre Burrows, and Aaron Rome.  I can honestly say as one who has asked for favors from the sports gods on numerous occasions that they do not always listen (although being a Boston sports fan over the last decade has had prayers answered more often than not).  However, it is with certainty that if these flopping, biting, taunting excuses for warriors on skates are to be crowned 2011 Stanley Cup Champions, I can stop looking the sports gods for answers, as it will be clear that they have been massacred by someone in a blue uniform with an orca popping out of the ice in the shape of a letter C.

Patriots CB Devin McCourty

points respectively.  The unit had been unfairly labeled as soft against the pass up until hat last couple of games, but one has to keep in mind that the offense has given the defense such monumental leads that the opponent has been forced to pass almost constantly, and the garbage yards and points are most certainly that, with the two exceptions being the first Jets game, and the debacle that was the game against the Cleveland Browns.

They are being led by stand out rookie cornerback Devin McCourty, who has 6 interceptions on the season, the most by a Pats rookie corner since Mike Haynes’ 8 back in 1976.  McCourty would be the odds on favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year if it wasn’t for Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and his 8 sacks.  McCourty has brought a physical presence to the position that hasn’t been seen in New England since the days of some guy named Ty Law.

Another young player in the secondary that is bringing praise is that of second-year safety Pat Chung.  Chung is the team’s second leading tackler with 79, and has two blocked kicks to his credit.  Undrafted corner Kyle Arrington has been solid as well since being named a starter in week 3.

In the linebacking corps, rookie inside linebacker Brandon Spikes was having a solid season with 61 tackles, and a key interception the Jets game, before he was suspended for 4 games for violating the NFL’s performance enhancing substances penalty.  Spikes will be eligible to return once the playoffs begin.  Next to where Spikes would normally play, 3^rd year inside linebacker Jerod Mayo has redeemed himself from his sophomore slump to post a team leading 97 tackles, and other than Vince Wilfork could be considered the leader of the defense.

On the defensive line, Vince Wilfork has been nicely complimented by journeyman defensive lineman Gerard Warren as well as second year man Ron Brace on the defensive end.  Warren had 3.5 sacks to his credit, and Brace 22 tackles, but it is tough to quantify the value of a 3-4 defensive end, as their primary responsibility is to overpower the offensive line to enable the linebackers to make plays, rather than rushing the passer as a 4-3 defensive end would such as the Colts’ Dwight Freeney.

devinThe young defense of the Patriots seems to be coming together at just the right time.  There are many young players who will hopefully not hit the wall down the stretch.  Regardless, we know as long as Bill Belichick is in charge, that they will be well prepared to face any situation and should succeed.

Browns RB Peyton Hillis rips Patriots

34-14.  After a solid home performance in Week 8 in defeating the Minnesota Vikings 28-18, the Patriots could be guilty of looking past the Browns, and ahead to the pivotal matchup this coming Sunday night at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

On the offensive side of the ball, although Tom Brady had a decent stat line – 220 yds., 2 TD’s, 0 INT- he was far less solid in reality.  Brady was guilty overthrowing receivers throughout the game, but was also victimized by numerous drops from the receiving corps, as well as a fumble by TE Rob Gronkowski.  The offense couldn’t sustain drives consistently, as the running game averaged just 3.6 yds/carry and missed some key opportunities on 3^rd downs, with just a 3-for-11 success rate.

The effects of not having Randy Moss could finally be showing up, and are most notable in Wes Welker’s production.  In the 4 games since Moss has been gone, Welker has averaged just 4.5 catches per game and 34.5 yards per game with zero touchdowns.  Deion Branch has been a ghost as well.  Excluding his first game back vs. Baltimore, he has totaled just 7 catches for 80 yards in the last 3 games.  Brandon Tate has not consistent as a deep threat.  Other than his 65-yard TD catch on a broken play vs. Minnesota, he has 3 catches for 47 yards in the last 3 weeks.

Defensively, the Pats allowed their first 100-yard rusher of the year, as they were eviscerated by Peyton Hillis for 184 yards on the ground for a 6.3 average and 2 touchdowns.  Hillis also beat Jerod Mayo on the sideline on a 29 yard catch.  The defense couldn’t stay off the field, as they allowed Cleveland to convert 7 of 13 3^rd downs, and rookie QB Colt McCoy to beat them with his feet rushing the ball and with numerous rollout passes.

Cleveland dictated the pace of the game with 38 minutes of possession to the Pats’ 22.  This was certainly helped by the Pats’ two turnovers, one by Sammy Morris on a first quarter kickoff, and a crucial fumble near the goal line by Gronkowski near the end of the first half.  The Patriots were down 10 points before Brady and the offense touched the ball, and they looked desperate all day trying to play catch-up.

It is not time to panic, but the Patriots have to find a way to inject some energy into the offense.  The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL, and are virtually impossible to run against.  Taking advantage of their hyper-aggressive nature by including some draw plays and screens could help to move the ball with better success.  Regardless, it is usually a classic when both teams get together and here’s to hoping Bill Belichick can find the cure for the stuggling offense, and anemic defense.

Bruins goalie Tim Thomas

The Bruins have allowed the fewest goals of any team in the NHL with an otherworldly 11 goals allowed in 8 games.  They also sport the league’s best penalty killing unit with a 93.1% success rate. 

Nathan Horton has also been a much-needed addition to the squad.  The 23-year old right wing, who was acquired from the Florida Panthers on draft day for inconsistent defenseman Dennis Wideman and a 1^st round pick, Horton scored a goal in each of his first 4 games, and has 5 total through 8 games.  His scoring touch and physical presence up front has added a much needed offensive injection into the Bruins, who had trouble finding the back of the net in 2009-10.

This season has also seen the continued growth of left wing Milan Lucic, who has 4 goals in 8 games playing on the first line with Horton and center David Krejci.  Rookie Jordan Caron has made major steps as well, netting 3 in his 7 games.  The 19-year old Caron looks to be an exciting player and part of a young nucleaus for years to come. 

This now brings us to 2^nd overall pick Tyler Seguin, who has made quite an impression with 5 points in his first 8 games.  Seguin has been solid on the defensive end as well, making many key plays.  The 18-year old center has impressed coach Claude Julien as well as the team’s veterans.  He is not going to be shipped back to juniors, and is here to stay.

With their growing offensive nucleus, solid defense and spectacular goaltending, the Boston Bruins may have their best chance to bring home their first Stanley Cup since 1972.  They have already dispatched the feared Washington Capitals twice, as well as division rivals Toronto and Ottawa.  It is a very long season, and powerhouses like the Pittsburgh Penguins, and hated rivals like the Montreal Canadiens loom on the schedule, but things are looking very promising as we begin November.