Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury

 stake for this weekend’s series at Fenway Park.  Both teams are virtually certain to make the playoffs, as the Los Angeles Angels, the only presumptive challenge to the Wild Card, sit 8 games back with just under 50 games left to play. 

Home field advantage in baseball is not as important as ensuring that your pitching rotation is set up properly for the Division Series.  With such a comfortable lead, look for both teams to give starters like Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia some rest in favor of younger pitchers one rosters expand in September.  Both teams play extremely well at home and on the road, so there isn’t a clear benefit to expending all energy at the end of the year for an arbitrary division title. 

To be honest, there may be a benefit to clinching the Wild Card rather than the division, as wining the division will probably meaning facing Detroit’s ace Justin Verlander twice in a short series, as opposed to going to Texas to face the likes of C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando in a hitter’s ballpark.  If you could get an honest answer from either team, they’d probably tell you that they’d choose Texas if they could pick their opponent. 

Even though the stakes aren’t that high right now, and they still have 87 more games to play against one another, the good news is that Red Sox vs. Yankees always equals entertaining baseball.  Purists, journalists, and umpires will complain about the length of the game, saying that 4-plus hours at the ballpark is too much, but I’m sure they’d all be more than happy to get real jobs in this economy than get paid to watch baseball.  This weekend should be fun.

 This injury could not have come at a worse time for the Sox, as Clay Buchholz continues to nurse a sore back, and John Lackey (5-8, 7.47 ERA) continues to get hit around like batting practice. The pitching staff will have to continue to get good performances from Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield in the meantime.

While there may be no hope for Lackey, who has faced questions about injuries himself, the rest of the staff has been solid. Alfredo Aceves, who has been up-and-down, will also get a few starts. In other Sox injury news, there is LF Carl Crawford and his hamstring. Crawford seemed to finally be putting it together before he pulled it, and will most likely return at Baltimore in a couple of weeks. His addition could help compensate for the lackluster J.D. Drew, who could be pushed out of the lineup by Josh Reddick in the final year of his deal. Many question if Drew has check out already and is alreasy retired in his own mind. Marco Scutaro also continues to play decently in the absence of oft-injured shortstop Jed Lowrie.

 Even though the Red Sox had a horrendous start to the year, and have had numerous injuries that would kill the chances of a lesser team, they are in prime position to return to the postseason. As long as Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis stay hot, they should be able to stave off the Tampa Bay Rays, who seem like the only legitimate threat at the Sox’ chance at the Wild Card.

No other city has been as successful in all four major sports in such a short period of time.  Boston has won championships in all four major sports in a 7 year span (2004 Red Sox, 2004 Patriots, 2008 Celtics, 2011 Bruins).  The city that comes the closest is of course New York, who had teams win championships in all four sports in a span of 13 years (1973 Knicks, 1977 Yankees, 1980 Islanders, 1986 Giants).  Following New York, it took Chicago 25 years to complete their grand slam (1985 Bears, 1991 Bulls, 2005 White Sox, 2010 Blackhawks).

Other major cities with four teams pale in comparison.  Philadelphia (1975 Flyers, 1980 Phillies, 1983 76ers) and Detroit (1984 Tigers, 1989 Pistons, 1997 Red Wings), have had three championships fairly close together, but neither the Eagles nor Lions have been able to win a Superbowl to make it four. 

Los Angeles (1983 Raiders, 1985 Lakers, 1988 Dodgers) just missed the Grand Slam when Wayne Gretzky’s Kings lost in the 1993 Stanley Cup Final against Montreal. If you count Anaheim as part of L.A, they completed the Grand Slam in 23 years when the Anaheim Ducks won the Stanley Cup in 2006.

Dallas (1993 Cowboys, 1999 Stars, 2011 Mavericks) came close when the Texas Rangers lost the 2010 World Series against the Giants.  Miami (1973 Dolphins, 1997 Marlins, 2006 Heat) may get close if the Florida Panthers ever come close to resembling a real hockey team, although they did get swept in the 1996 Stanley Cup Final, so they have that going for them.

The list gets weaker when you consider the other four sport cities such as Washington (1978 Bullets, 1983, 1987, 1991 Redskins), Minneapolis (1987 & 1991 Twins), and Denver (1996 & 2001 Avalanche, 1997 & 1998 Broncos), who have had multiple winners, but their success limited to a few sports.  Phoenix (2001 Diamondbacks) is pulling up the four sport city rear.  Atlanta, which just lost four sport status, has only the 1995 Braves to thank.

The run of dominance by Boston sports teams is significant in the length of time in which it has occurred.  Seven championships in 10 years is remarkable, but what is even crazier to fathom is that it could have been even more.  Had the Patriots won in 2007 against the Giants, and the Celtics in 2010 versus the Lakers, we’d be talking about 9 championships in 10 years.  Times are very good in Beantown.

Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish

The Boston Red Sox were essentially spectators at the trade deadline rather than a buyer or seller.  Team management believes that the solutions to the teams woes – bullpen, not enough offense from OF – can be addressed with solutions that are internal.  They began with addition by subtraction.  LF Jeremy Hermida was designated for assignment, and RP Ramon Ramirez was shipped to the San Franciso Giants for minor leaguer RP Daniel Turpen. 

Hermida was hitting just .203 at the time of his designation, and had been an absolute butcher in the field, botching numerous routine plays.  Ramirez, who was acquired from Kansas City for Coco Crisp after 2008, had a 4.46 Era in 2010, falling well below the expectations he had set in the first half of 2009, when he was very reliable.

In Hermida’s place steps outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, who was called up Saturday just before the 4:15 start at Fenway.  Kalish, who had 13 HR and 25 SB between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket got his Major League career to a good start, as the 22 year old went 2 for 4 with an RBI Saturday and picked up another RBI in Sunday’s win as well, both against the Detroit Tigers. 

Kalish will be depended on much more to come as Mike Cameron went on the DL today and will more than likely have abdominal surgery to end his season.  Daniel Nava was called up today and will be in Boston until Jacoby Ellsbury returns, which could be this week.

As for the bullpen, the hope is that Michael Bowden will be called up to help the Sox, as he is being converted to a relief pitcher in Pawtucket, as is lefty Felix Dubront, who made a few spot starts for the Red Sox in July which yielded mixed results.  That help needs to come sooner than later, as another lead vanished in yesterday’s near debacle, with Jonathan Papelbon blowing yet another save.

As the Red Sox sit 5.5 games in back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card and 6.5 behind the Yankees, many things have to go right.  The good news is that they will have their cracks against both these teams in the nest two months, with 6 games vs. Tampa and 7 vs. the Yankees, 4 of which come this weekend at Yankee Stadium.   While it is still too early to count them out at this point, they certainly have their work cut out for them.

Red Sox RP Michael Bowden

As the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline approaches, the Boston Red Sox have their share of needs to fill.  What are those exact needs, and who are the players that could potentially fill these roles?  As the Red Sox threaten to fade down the stretch, here are the problem areas that need to be addressed, as well as some possible solutions.

Leftfield

Synopsis: The Red Sox have been able to get by with what have been essentially Triple A players, but the holes in the lineup are starting to catch up with them, as evidenced by the last series at home vs. the Texas Rangers.  Leftfield is traditionally a power position, and as of this moment, there is not much power being generated from this area.

Current Options: LF Daniel Nava, OF Darnell McDonald, OF/2B Bill Hall, OF/IF Eric Patterson.

Potential Internal Solutions:  The Red Sox are waiting on Jacoby Ellsbury’s return; however Mike Cameron’s abdominal injuries may eventually force him to be sidelined for the year, thus moving Ellsbury back to his natural centerfield position.  Jeremy Hermida could play LF once off the DL, but his defense has been atrocious at times.  OF Josh Reddick could be called up from Pawtucket.

Trade Solutions: The big bat that is potentially available is Washington’s 1B/OF Adam Dunn.  Dunn would give the Red Sox a huge power threat from the left side, however he could be costly, as he is a potential Type A free agent and wouldn’t come cheaply.  Another solution is Kansas City OF David DeJesus who could come a lot cheaper, and is more likely to be dealt.

Bullpen

Synopsis: Outside of Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon, the bullpen has been shaky all season long.  If the Red Sox are to go anywhere, they will need both a left handed and right handed bullpen arm to step up to shorten the game.

Current Options: Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Dustin Richardson

Potential Internal Solutions:  Prospect Michael Bowden has been converted into a reliever and called up.  Manny Delcarmen has come off the DL recently and the coaching staff likes what they see since his return.  Dustin Richardson is the only other lefty besides Okajima and is really on the roster for that sole reason.

Trade Solutions:  The Blue Jays are trying to peddle RHP’s Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor as well as LHP Scott Downs.  Downs is a potential Type A, so he’s probably too expensive.  Indians RP Kerry Wood was available, but is now on the DL, however he could be waived after the deadline.  Royals RHP Kyle Farnsworth is also available, and probably inexpensive.

Catcher

Synopsis: The Red Sox have been in quite a pinch behind the plate as Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek were injured days apart.  They have struggled to find a viable replacement for either of them on the offensive side, which has created a hole in the bottom of the lineup.

Current Options: Kevin Cash, Dusty Brown

Potential Internal Solutions: Few and far between.  There’s not a clear timetable on the return of both Martinez and Varitek, and the minor league catching cupboard is fairly barren. 

Trade Solutions:  Strangely, now that the Rangers have traded 1B Justin Smoak, they have a need for a right handed bat.  Enter Mike Lowell who was traded to them in the offseason for C Max Ramirez, only to fail the physical to kill the deal.  It is possible this deal could take place for a second time, as Ramirez has become expendable with the acquisition of Bengie Molina.

Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz

Red Sox P Clay Buchholz is finally starting to live up to the hype that comes with being a former top prospect in the Red Sox system.  Following last nights 6-3 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Buchholz is currently 9-4 with a 2.67 ERA in 13 starts.  8 of those games have been Quality Starts (6 IP and 3 ER or less) and he also has a complete game shut out vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

Buchholz has stepped up in a major way with Sox ace Josh Beckett on the disabled list.  Granted, while his last few starts haven’t exactly been against the juggernauts of Major League Baseball, (Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore, Kansas City), he does hold victories over 5 American League teams with winning records – Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, the L.A. Angels, and Toronto. 

His only horrible start of the year was against the New York Yankees, in which he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings.  How many pitchers are able to squash that lineup?  Not many.  Even Phillies ace and perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay was whacked by the Bombers, giving up 4 homeruns yesterday at the House that Jeter Built.  Besides that one bad performance, one could make the argument Buchholz has been the Red Sox’ most consistent starter thus far. 

He has shown composure that has not seen from him since his no-hitter back in 2007, as he has the lowest strikeout to walk ratio of his career (1.71).  His control has improved dramatically, and he has used that control to pitch to contact and rely on the improved infield defense of Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro to get more groundouts.  He is becoming more of a pitcher than just a thrower who is just trying to blow every hitter away. 

Buchholz is a fantastic value for the Red Sox as he is currently making less than $500,000 this year, and is able to offset questionable contracts such as those of Mike Cameron and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  While he has been the subject of trade rumors ever since he made his major league debut back in 2007, with the injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka they need him more than ever. 

However, one could also say that his trade value may never be higher, given his performance and contract.  While this may be true, for the moment the Red Sox offense looks pretty decent.  This lineup, which before the year looked questionable on paper, has been a nice surprise thanks to Beltre’s offensive output, as well as key contributions from the likes of Darnell McDonald, Jeremy Hermida, and Daniel Nava in the absence of Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury.  Buchholz’ next start will be at home Sunday against Manny Ramirez and the Los Angeles Dodgers, which should be wildly entertaining no matter how you slice it.

Red Sox DH David Ortiz

With last night’s 2-0 win at the Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox continued their hot streak.  Over the last 12 games, the Red Sox have gone on an 8-4 run against some of the best teams in Major League Baseball.  Despite losing their series at Detroit May 14-16, they have split a two game set at the New York Yankees, beat the Minnesota Twins in a two-game sweep, taken 2 of 33 from the defending NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies, and now taken two of the first 3 at Tampa, which at point this season has looked unbeatable. 

With that being stated, the Red Sox are still 6.5 games in back of Tampa, but are only 3 games behind the Yankees in the loss column for the early Wild Card lead.  Despite all the inconsistency that has plagued the club up until this point, the ship seems to be righting itself, as David Ortiz has awaken from a comatose April to post a .359 batting average, 8 home runs and 21 RBI in the month of May. 

If the Red Sox can stay consistent, they can fatten up their record in the next two weeks, as they face Kansas City and Oakland at Fenway and travel to Baltimore and Cleveland.  All of these teams currently have losing records except for Oakland, who currently stand at .500 with a 23-23 record.  The Sox need to take advantage of this part of the schedule to make serious headway in the division.   

Ortiz’ resurgence combined with the apparent ascension of Clay Buchholz as well as Jon Lester shaking off his perennial early-season struggles have been the prime reason for the marked improvement.  They continue to hit the ball well, as they are second in the AL in home runs behind the surprising Toronto Blue Jays, who have belted 79.

They should be able to move out 4^th place in the division and past the Blue Jays, whose free swinging ways will surely catch up to them.  Although they are smashing the ball out of the park at an alarming rate, one would believe that their offensive success will eventually tail off.  They are hitting .243 as a team, and their on-base Percentage of .309 is currently the worst in the American League.

The Blue Jays have changed their ways over the last year or so, exchanging their old philosophy of working pitch counts for one of “see the ball, hit the ball” for lack of a better term.  Of all the AL East teams, they have played the least divisional games, and have faced a much weaker chedule than the Sox. Yanks and Rays up until this point. 

With Mike Cameron now healthy and active, the defense should dramatically improve in the outfield.  Although Jeremy Hermida has been an adequate replacement at the plate, his defense has been atrocious at times.  The jury is still out on exactly what Jacoby Ellsbury’s condition is, so we may see more of the Hermida/Darnell McDonald/Bill Hall pupu platter in the outfield than was to be expected at this point.

The Red Sox seem to be getting healthy and hot just at the right time.  Their series wins over the Twins, Phillies, and Rays should boost the confidence of a club that was struggling mightily just a month ago.  It may not be such a long hot summer after all.

Outside of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the starting pitching has been awful

In 39 games played, the pitching rotation has just 18 Quality Starts (6 IP, 3 or less ER) to their credit.  John Lackey has been disappointing thus far, as his strikeout rate (5.58/9 IP) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.48) have been the worst of his career to this point.  In his last 2 starts, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings, causing his ERA to jump a full run to 4.86.  Not exactly what you’re looking for in your highest paid player.  Josh Beckett has allowed a staggering 52 hits in just 41 innings with a pitiful 7.46 ERA, and Daisuke Matsuzaka is his usual disappointing self, as he has made past the 5^th inning just twice in 4 starts, once of which was against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Offense has been better than expected despite injuries

The Red Sox are 2^nd in the A.L. with 54 HR, and 3^rd in runs scored with 203.  J.D. Drew has been the most productive hitter with 26 RBI, and Adrian Beltre is an unlikely candidate to be leading the team in hitting with a .312 average.  Even David Ortiz is showing signs of life lately with 6 HR in May.  Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis have been their consistent selves. Victor Martinez was moved down to 5^th in the lineup and hit 2 HR last night. Marco Scutaro has been a good leadoff hitter, with a .363 OBP.  Jason Varitek has been good when he’s been asked to spell Martinez.    One would think that Beltre will come back to earth, as his patience at the plate has not been great (8 walks in 149 Plate Appearances), but the offense in general should improve once Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron Return. 

The middle relief has been horrible, but the late inning relief has been solid

Since the starting rotation is rarely going deep into games, the bullpen continues to be tax heavily, which mean that Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez are pitching much more than they should.  Each is sporting an ERA over 6.00, and are both possible candidates to be released at some point should there be more of the same.  Addtionally, left-handed hitters are hitting .346 off “lefty-specialist” Scott Schoenweis.  Things usually don’t bode well for pitchers who are paid to get 1 out a game and can’t do it.  The back end of the bullpen has been solid however, as Daniel Bard has been great, striking out 26 batters in 20 innings.  Despite last night’s rough outing, Jonanthan Papelbon has been good, converting 9 of 10 save opportunities.

So what needs to happen for this team to succeed?  If the starting pitching can come around and get into the 6^th and 7^th innings consistently, the Red Sox can improve.  Once the offense is healthy, they will score more runs, and Ellsbury’s speed will make them more diverse of a threat.   Hopefully by the time these things happen, the Red Sox won’t be 15 games out of first.