Outside of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the starting pitching has been awful

In 39 games played, the pitching rotation has just 18 Quality Starts (6 IP, 3 or less ER) to their credit.  John Lackey has been disappointing thus far, as his strikeout rate (5.58/9 IP) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.48) have been the worst of his career to this point.  In his last 2 starts, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings, causing his ERA to jump a full run to 4.86.  Not exactly what you’re looking for in your highest paid player.  Josh Beckett has allowed a staggering 52 hits in just 41 innings with a pitiful 7.46 ERA, and Daisuke Matsuzaka is his usual disappointing self, as he has made past the 5^th inning just twice in 4 starts, once of which was against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Offense has been better than expected despite injuries

The Red Sox are 2^nd in the A.L. with 54 HR, and 3^rd in runs scored with 203.  J.D. Drew has been the most productive hitter with 26 RBI, and Adrian Beltre is an unlikely candidate to be leading the team in hitting with a .312 average.  Even David Ortiz is showing signs of life lately with 6 HR in May.  Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis have been their consistent selves. Victor Martinez was moved down to 5^th in the lineup and hit 2 HR last night. Marco Scutaro has been a good leadoff hitter, with a .363 OBP.  Jason Varitek has been good when he’s been asked to spell Martinez.    One would think that Beltre will come back to earth, as his patience at the plate has not been great (8 walks in 149 Plate Appearances), but the offense in general should improve once Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron Return. 

The middle relief has been horrible, but the late inning relief has been solid

Since the starting rotation is rarely going deep into games, the bullpen continues to be tax heavily, which mean that Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez are pitching much more than they should.  Each is sporting an ERA over 6.00, and are both possible candidates to be released at some point should there be more of the same.  Addtionally, left-handed hitters are hitting .346 off “lefty-specialist” Scott Schoenweis.  Things usually don’t bode well for pitchers who are paid to get 1 out a game and can’t do it.  The back end of the bullpen has been solid however, as Daniel Bard has been great, striking out 26 batters in 20 innings.  Despite last night’s rough outing, Jonanthan Papelbon has been good, converting 9 of 10 save opportunities.

So what needs to happen for this team to succeed?  If the starting pitching can come around and get into the 6^th and 7^th innings consistently, the Red Sox can improve.  Once the offense is healthy, they will score more runs, and Ellsbury’s speed will make them more diverse of a threat.   Hopefully by the time these things happen, the Red Sox won’t be 15 games out of first.

Red Sox SP Josh Beckett

Coming off a 17- win campaign in 2009, Beckett was in the club option year of his 3 year-$30 million deal that he signed after being acquired via trade from the Florida Marlins following the 2005 season.  He was slated to become a free agent after this season.  Had he tested the free agent waters this fall, popular opinion is that he could have secured a C.C. Sabathia-esque deal in the neighborhood of $200 million.

Even though his performance last night against the New York Yankees was disappointing, with 5 earned runs allowed in just 4.2 innings, Beckett remains one of the best big-game pitchers in baseball.  In 13 career postseason starts, he is 7-3 with 99 strikeouts, a 3.07 ERA and 3 complete game shutouts.  He also owns two World Series rings; one with Florida in 2003, and one with the Red Sox in 2007. 

As long as they stay healthy, the Red Sox will now have arguably the best pitching rotation in baseball for at least the next 4 years.  This could also give the team flexibility to explore trading younger, more inexpensive starting pitchers such as Clay Buchholz in a potential blockbuster for someone like the Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has been long rumored to be headed to Boston. 

A move like this would also open up a spot in the rotation for Daisuke Matsuzaka who is currently on the disabled list with a neck issue.  Given their financial obligations to Matsuzaka through the year 2012, it is highly unlikely that many teams would want absorb his contract. 

Buchholz’ miniscule contract dictates that his trade value is high, and he could be dangled at the trade deadline if the Red Sox offense proves to be unsatisfactory. Others might argue that you can never have enough pitching, and Buchholz is needed as insurance if 45- year old Tim Wakefield’s back begins to act up again, or if Matsuzaka’s neck injury proves to be a long-term problem. 

Regardless if a trade occurs or not, the fact is that the Red Sox took a giant step today in ensuring their viability in the AL East for the immediate future.  They are built to win for this season as well as years to come.  There aren’t many lineups in baseball who will be excited to face the 3-headed monster of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey in a playoff series for the next few seasons.  With this rotation, come October, the Red Sox will have an excellent shot to return to the World Series.