Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury

 stake for this weekend’s series at Fenway Park.  Both teams are virtually certain to make the playoffs, as the Los Angeles Angels, the only presumptive challenge to the Wild Card, sit 8 games back with just under 50 games left to play. 

Home field advantage in baseball is not as important as ensuring that your pitching rotation is set up properly for the Division Series.  With such a comfortable lead, look for both teams to give starters like Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia some rest in favor of younger pitchers one rosters expand in September.  Both teams play extremely well at home and on the road, so there isn’t a clear benefit to expending all energy at the end of the year for an arbitrary division title. 

To be honest, there may be a benefit to clinching the Wild Card rather than the division, as wining the division will probably meaning facing Detroit’s ace Justin Verlander twice in a short series, as opposed to going to Texas to face the likes of C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando in a hitter’s ballpark.  If you could get an honest answer from either team, they’d probably tell you that they’d choose Texas if they could pick their opponent. 

Even though the stakes aren’t that high right now, and they still have 87 more games to play against one another, the good news is that Red Sox vs. Yankees always equals entertaining baseball.  Purists, journalists, and umpires will complain about the length of the game, saying that 4-plus hours at the ballpark is too much, but I’m sure they’d all be more than happy to get real jobs in this economy than get paid to watch baseball.  This weekend should be fun.

 This injury could not have come at a worse time for the Sox, as Clay Buchholz continues to nurse a sore back, and John Lackey (5-8, 7.47 ERA) continues to get hit around like batting practice. The pitching staff will have to continue to get good performances from Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield in the meantime.

While there may be no hope for Lackey, who has faced questions about injuries himself, the rest of the staff has been solid. Alfredo Aceves, who has been up-and-down, will also get a few starts. In other Sox injury news, there is LF Carl Crawford and his hamstring. Crawford seemed to finally be putting it together before he pulled it, and will most likely return at Baltimore in a couple of weeks. His addition could help compensate for the lackluster J.D. Drew, who could be pushed out of the lineup by Josh Reddick in the final year of his deal. Many question if Drew has check out already and is alreasy retired in his own mind. Marco Scutaro also continues to play decently in the absence of oft-injured shortstop Jed Lowrie.

 Even though the Red Sox had a horrendous start to the year, and have had numerous injuries that would kill the chances of a lesser team, they are in prime position to return to the postseason. As long as Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis stay hot, they should be able to stave off the Tampa Bay Rays, who seem like the only legitimate threat at the Sox’ chance at the Wild Card.

Red Sox CF Mike Cameron

Despite the fact that the Boston Red Sox seem to be dropping like flies, they remain just 2 games behind the hated Yankees for first place in the American League East.  After today’s game at the Giants, the Red Sox head home to face the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.  They will be happy to get out of San Francisco alive at this point. 

In what can be described simply as a freak injury, second baseman Dustin Pedroia could be lost for up to two months after breaking his foot when he fouled a ball off of it in Friday night’s game.  Pedroia is an irreplaceable piece of both the offensive and defensive picture, and will be sorely missed.  Hopefully the Sox can tread water with Bill Hall at second, who has been below average at best as an outfielder.  Here’s to hoping he doesn’t butcher too many double-play balls in the next few weeks.

Clay Buchholz suffered a scare in yesterday’s game, in which he pilled up lame running the bases.  Thankfully it turned out to be just a hyperextension of the knee, and Buchholz should be good to go for his next start, which should be Saturday at home vs. the Orioles.

Elsewhere in the Red Sox infirmary, there is a one Jacoby Ellsbury, who is still apparently not close to resuming baseball activities in the wake of what must be the most horrific rib injury ever suffered by a professional athlete.  

Ellsbury broke his ribs the first week of the season after colliding with third baseman Arian Beltre.  He made an attempt at a comeback about a month ago but went back on the DL after just 3 games.  Maybe we’ll see him sometime before 2012, get well Jacoby.  Good thing you didn’t use your 4.3 40-yd dash time to make a play as a wide receiver, because things such as hangnails are generally not seen as serious injuries in the NFL.

On the other side of the spectrum, Mike Cameron continues to gut his way (no pun intended) through an abdominal tear, playing just about every other game.  Cameron put his body on the line, making a spectacular catch in the 8^th inning yesterday to save extra bases on a shot from Giants 3B Pablo Sandoval.  Cameron also supplied the offense, smashing a 3-run bomb.

In the face of adversity, the Red sox have managed to find ways to win.  They have had a great month of June, going 16-8, helping to circumvent their slow start.  Hopefully, the impending return of Josh Beckett and the continued success of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz will help them stay afloat until Pedroia’s return.

Outside of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the starting pitching has been awful

In 39 games played, the pitching rotation has just 18 Quality Starts (6 IP, 3 or less ER) to their credit.  John Lackey has been disappointing thus far, as his strikeout rate (5.58/9 IP) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.48) have been the worst of his career to this point.  In his last 2 starts, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings, causing his ERA to jump a full run to 4.86.  Not exactly what you’re looking for in your highest paid player.  Josh Beckett has allowed a staggering 52 hits in just 41 innings with a pitiful 7.46 ERA, and Daisuke Matsuzaka is his usual disappointing self, as he has made past the 5^th inning just twice in 4 starts, once of which was against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Offense has been better than expected despite injuries

The Red Sox are 2^nd in the A.L. with 54 HR, and 3^rd in runs scored with 203.  J.D. Drew has been the most productive hitter with 26 RBI, and Adrian Beltre is an unlikely candidate to be leading the team in hitting with a .312 average.  Even David Ortiz is showing signs of life lately with 6 HR in May.  Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis have been their consistent selves. Victor Martinez was moved down to 5^th in the lineup and hit 2 HR last night. Marco Scutaro has been a good leadoff hitter, with a .363 OBP.  Jason Varitek has been good when he’s been asked to spell Martinez.    One would think that Beltre will come back to earth, as his patience at the plate has not been great (8 walks in 149 Plate Appearances), but the offense in general should improve once Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron Return. 

The middle relief has been horrible, but the late inning relief has been solid

Since the starting rotation is rarely going deep into games, the bullpen continues to be tax heavily, which mean that Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez are pitching much more than they should.  Each is sporting an ERA over 6.00, and are both possible candidates to be released at some point should there be more of the same.  Addtionally, left-handed hitters are hitting .346 off “lefty-specialist” Scott Schoenweis.  Things usually don’t bode well for pitchers who are paid to get 1 out a game and can’t do it.  The back end of the bullpen has been solid however, as Daniel Bard has been great, striking out 26 batters in 20 innings.  Despite last night’s rough outing, Jonanthan Papelbon has been good, converting 9 of 10 save opportunities.

So what needs to happen for this team to succeed?  If the starting pitching can come around and get into the 6^th and 7^th innings consistently, the Red Sox can improve.  Once the offense is healthy, they will score more runs, and Ellsbury’s speed will make them more diverse of a threat.   Hopefully by the time these things happen, the Red Sox won’t be 15 games out of first.

Red Sox SP Josh Beckett

Coming off a 17- win campaign in 2009, Beckett was in the club option year of his 3 year-$30 million deal that he signed after being acquired via trade from the Florida Marlins following the 2005 season.  He was slated to become a free agent after this season.  Had he tested the free agent waters this fall, popular opinion is that he could have secured a C.C. Sabathia-esque deal in the neighborhood of $200 million.

Even though his performance last night against the New York Yankees was disappointing, with 5 earned runs allowed in just 4.2 innings, Beckett remains one of the best big-game pitchers in baseball.  In 13 career postseason starts, he is 7-3 with 99 strikeouts, a 3.07 ERA and 3 complete game shutouts.  He also owns two World Series rings; one with Florida in 2003, and one with the Red Sox in 2007. 

As long as they stay healthy, the Red Sox will now have arguably the best pitching rotation in baseball for at least the next 4 years.  This could also give the team flexibility to explore trading younger, more inexpensive starting pitchers such as Clay Buchholz in a potential blockbuster for someone like the Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has been long rumored to be headed to Boston. 

A move like this would also open up a spot in the rotation for Daisuke Matsuzaka who is currently on the disabled list with a neck issue.  Given their financial obligations to Matsuzaka through the year 2012, it is highly unlikely that many teams would want absorb his contract. 

Buchholz’ miniscule contract dictates that his trade value is high, and he could be dangled at the trade deadline if the Red Sox offense proves to be unsatisfactory. Others might argue that you can never have enough pitching, and Buchholz is needed as insurance if 45- year old Tim Wakefield’s back begins to act up again, or if Matsuzaka’s neck injury proves to be a long-term problem. 

Regardless if a trade occurs or not, the fact is that the Red Sox took a giant step today in ensuring their viability in the AL East for the immediate future.  They are built to win for this season as well as years to come.  There aren’t many lineups in baseball who will be excited to face the 3-headed monster of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey in a playoff series for the next few seasons.  With this rotation, come October, the Red Sox will have an excellent shot to return to the World Series.