Patriots WR Chad Ochocinco

 move by the Pats.  Ocho is slated to be the Patriots new #1 receiver, and thus Tom Brady’s favorite target.  But what are the realistic expectations for #85?  He is not a deep threat, and approaching his mid-30’s.  Here are some facts that may temper your enthusiasm:

 -         He hasn’t played in 16 games since 2007.

-          He’s never caught 100 passes in a season, and hasn’t caught at least 90 passes since 2007.

-          He’s only had 10 TD’s once – in 2003.

-          In 2 of the last 3 seasons, he has not reached 1,000 receiving.

-          He had only 4 TD’s last season, and they came against some pretty weak defenses – Buffalo, Atlanta, Indianapolis, and the Patriots.

-          In the last 3 seasons, he’s eclipsed 100 yards receiving only 5 times.

So what do these numbers mean?  One would think that Ochocinco’s numbers should improve given that Tom Brady will be feeding him the ball rather than Carson Palmer.  Palmer, was no slouch but a competent NFL quarterback for a few years.  The truth is that Brady has a vast array of weapons – Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez – and it’s no secret that he likes to spread the ball around. 

With that being said, Chad Ochocinco doesn’t necessarily profile to be a true #1 receiver as much as another cog in a well-oiled, possession passing machine that is the Patriots offense.  This is not a knock on Ocho, he is a good player, but those who are expecting a second coming of Randy Moss are fooling themselves.  He will big a big contributor and will take a lot of pressure off the other receivers, but don’t count on Pro Bowl-like numbers.  A reasonably educated guess for his production would be 75 receptions, around 900 yards, and 8 TD’s.

Browns RB Peyton Hillis rips Patriots

34-14.  After a solid home performance in Week 8 in defeating the Minnesota Vikings 28-18, the Patriots could be guilty of looking past the Browns, and ahead to the pivotal matchup this coming Sunday night at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

On the offensive side of the ball, although Tom Brady had a decent stat line – 220 yds., 2 TD’s, 0 INT- he was far less solid in reality.  Brady was guilty overthrowing receivers throughout the game, but was also victimized by numerous drops from the receiving corps, as well as a fumble by TE Rob Gronkowski.  The offense couldn’t sustain drives consistently, as the running game averaged just 3.6 yds/carry and missed some key opportunities on 3^rd downs, with just a 3-for-11 success rate.

The effects of not having Randy Moss could finally be showing up, and are most notable in Wes Welker’s production.  In the 4 games since Moss has been gone, Welker has averaged just 4.5 catches per game and 34.5 yards per game with zero touchdowns.  Deion Branch has been a ghost as well.  Excluding his first game back vs. Baltimore, he has totaled just 7 catches for 80 yards in the last 3 games.  Brandon Tate has not consistent as a deep threat.  Other than his 65-yard TD catch on a broken play vs. Minnesota, he has 3 catches for 47 yards in the last 3 weeks.

Defensively, the Pats allowed their first 100-yard rusher of the year, as they were eviscerated by Peyton Hillis for 184 yards on the ground for a 6.3 average and 2 touchdowns.  Hillis also beat Jerod Mayo on the sideline on a 29 yard catch.  The defense couldn’t stay off the field, as they allowed Cleveland to convert 7 of 13 3^rd downs, and rookie QB Colt McCoy to beat them with his feet rushing the ball and with numerous rollout passes.

Cleveland dictated the pace of the game with 38 minutes of possession to the Pats’ 22.  This was certainly helped by the Pats’ two turnovers, one by Sammy Morris on a first quarter kickoff, and a crucial fumble near the goal line by Gronkowski near the end of the first half.  The Patriots were down 10 points before Brady and the offense touched the ball, and they looked desperate all day trying to play catch-up.

It is not time to panic, but the Patriots have to find a way to inject some energy into the offense.  The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL, and are virtually impossible to run against.  Taking advantage of their hyper-aggressive nature by including some draw plays and screens could help to move the ball with better success.  Regardless, it is usually a classic when both teams get together and here’s to hoping Bill Belichick can find the cure for the stuggling offense, and anemic defense.

Vikings WR Randy Moss

During his time in New England, Randy Moss was a force to be reckoned with.  In 2007, he set the single-season NFL record for touchdown receptions in a season with 23.  Over three-and-a-quarter seasons with the Patriots, he amassed 259 receptions, 3004 receiving yards and 50 touchdowns.  Moss gave the Patriots a deep threat like they had never seen in their team’s history.  And now he’s gone. 

Like a shooting star, he has passed through the Boston sports scene and is gone forever.  To many fans, having such an iconic figure for this amount of time felt like a dream, to which we have now awaken.  Did it actually happen? 

Now that this dream is over, and Moss has been moved to the Minnesota Vikings for just a 3^rd round pick in the 2011 draft, reality will start to set in.  There is no one on the Patriots, let alone in the NFL with the possible exception of Houston’s Andre Johnson that has the physical skills to replicate Moss. 

Despite his apparent lack of effort that every Belichickian sycophant in the Boston media will swear by for their own livelihood and access, his mere presence on the field commanded respect, attention and multiple defenders to open up the passing game for the Welkers, and Hernandez’s of the world. 

Moving forward, this is no longer an elite offense.  For every talking head in this city that longs for the days when Deion Branch, David Givens, Troy Brown and company were just simple complimentary cogs in the machine, they need to realize that those days are over, and unless you have elite talent in the passing game in today’s NFL, you’re not winning championships.  Not to mention their defense isn’t nearly as good as it was in that era.

Look at the best teams in the NFL – New Orleans, Indianapolis, Green Bay – all of them are oriented at threatening the homerun in order to open up other parts of the offense.  The lemmings will tell you that the Patriots offense will now be predicated on two-tight end sets and the running game.  Really?  2 TE’s in every formation?  A running game led by future hall-of-famers Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead? 

The fact of the matter is that the Patriots are a worse team today than they were yesterday.  Sure, Moss had his apparent spats with the team.  Guess what, this happens in every profession, but you deal with it for your most productive employees.  Not everyone is treated equally.  They could have made it through the season and dealt with it, instead they chose to do it “their way.”  Unfortunately they can’t see the forest from the trees, since their way hasn’t done much for them lately.

Patriots WR Randy Moss

The New England Patriots ended 2009 on a horrible note, getting lambasted by the Baltimore Ravens at home in the AFC Wild Card Game back in January.  Most of the blame fell on the apparent softness of the defense.  Many of the holes have been addressed through the draft, as first round pick Devin McCourty from Rutgers is making a case to start at cornerback.  Despite his lackluster performance in the last preseason game vs. the St. Louis Rams, McCourty has been solid in camp in the preseason, and could bring a physical presence that that Pats have lacked on the outside for quite some time. 

To solidify the run defense, the Patriots selected ILB Brandon Spikes from Florida.  A natural leader, Spikes’ stock fell in the draft due to his poor 40-yard dash as the scouting combine.  With that being said, his tenacity and play making ability has impressed the coaches, and he is the favorite to start next to ILB Jerod Mayo.  On the outside, Tully Bata-Cain and Derrick Burgess are back.  OLB Marques Murrell has joined the team as a 2-down OLB.  The pass rush has been spotty at best so far in the preseason.

The defensive line still has many questions however.  DE Ty Warren was lost for the season with a hip injury.  Vince Wilfork will still be the rock in the middle, but the rest of the line will more than likely be a pu-pu platter of former Cleveland Brown and Oakland Raider castoff Gerard Warren, Mike Wright, and BC’s own Ron Brace.  Brace has looked good in the preseason thus far, but is currently nursing a sprained ankle.3

The offense was also questioned heavily last year for being too predictable.  To solve this, Bill Belichick completely gutted the tight end position.  Ben Watson left for Cleveland, and was replaced by two exciting and promising draft picks in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. 

Gronkowski has already become a cult hero in the preseason with 3 TD’s.  He’s a huge target at 6’7”, and could give the Pats their best threat at the position since Ben Coates.  Hernandez has more of a receivers’ body, and could see time as an H-back.  You could draw many parallels with Hernandez and Indy’s Dallas Clark.  Randy Moss is still one of the best in the league, and Julian Edelman has made huge strides.  With Wes Welker also looking spry and healthy, the receiving corps looks solid.

The issues that could hinder the offense lie with the offensive line and the running game.  Pro-bowl guard Logan Makins is a holdout, and may have played his last game for the Pats.  He is being replaced by Dan Connolly, who has been good thus far.

As for the running game, it was not addressed in the offseason, as Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris will all be back, with no clue as to who will get the majority of the carries.  (Fantasy note:  do yourself a favor….don’t draft ANY of these guys!!)  Maroney’s status is also in question, as he hasn’t played in the last 2 preseason games. 

With all this being said, the potential is certainly there for the Pats to win 10 games and return to the postseason.  As long as Tom Brady is standing upright, they have a good a chance as any AFC team.

Patriots #1 Pick Devin McCourty

Coming into the 2010 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots had a plethora of holes to fill.  Armed with 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, the Patriots had the ammunition to fill their gaps, as well as the flexibility to move up and down the draft board in order to maximize the value of their selections.  Although they did not acquire an elite pass rusher, or upgrade the running back position, there is a lot to be excited about, as they have upgraded in many areas.

Devin McCourty, CB – Rutgers – While this selection at 27^th overall came to surprise of many fans who were expecting the Pats to go with a pass-rushing OLB, McCourty fills a major need.  With the Jets adding WR Santono Holmes, and the Dolphins bringing in WR Brandom Marshall, the need for a physical, speedy corner became all the more prevalent.  McCourty will more than likely emerge as the Patriots’ nickelback in his first season, with Leigh Bodden and Darius Butler the likely starters.  He should be an upgrade amongst the remaining corners in Shawn Springs, Jonathan Wilhite, and Terrence Wheatley, of which one could be cut prior to training camp.  McCourty’s versatility as a gunner and return man were also considerations in his selection.

Rob Gronkowski, TE – Arizona – With the departures of both Ben Watson and Chris Baker via free agency, the tight end position was seen as a major area or concern.  The Patriots swung a deal with the Chicago Bears to leapfrog the Baltimore Ravens and select Gronkowski at 42, who projects to be a complete tight end.  At 6’6” and 264 lbs, Gronkowski has the bulk and strength to help support the running game, as well as the pass-catching skills to help take pressure off the rest of the receiving corps.  While, the 20-year old Gronkowski did not play in 2009 due to a back injury, he was rated as the 2^nd best TE in the draft behind Jermaine Gresham, who went to Cincinnati in the first round.  He should press free-agent acquisition Alge Crumpler for the first TE on the depth chart.

Jermaine Cunningham, OLB – Florida – Of all the Patriots’ early draft picks, Cunningham seems to be the biggest question mark.  Cunningham did post 19.5 sacks in his career at Florida; however this was at DE in a 4-3 scheme.  It remains to be seen if he can transition into a pass-rushing 3-4 OLB, and if his coverage abilities are up to snuff.  Cunningham was not mentioned by many pundits as one of the better pass-rushers in the draft despite his production in college.  Some have also questioned his character.  At 6’3”, 263 lbs, he does fit the Bill Belichick prototype of a larger, physical presence on the outside.  If he does not pan out as a pass-rusher, he could develop into a 1^st and 2^nd down type of run-stopper, with Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess pinning their ears back on 3^rd down. 

Brandon Spikes, ILB – Florida – The Patriots could have a real steal in Spikes.  Despite his sub-par 40-yd. dash time at the scouting combine, Spikes is a solid player and a leader.  He could provide the Pats with an inside presence next to Jerod Mayo that could help the team’s rushing defense immensely for years to come.  The captian of the defense at Florida, Spikes is a tough-as-nails throwback to middle linebackers such as Mike Singletary and Chris Spielman.  He is an immediate upgrade for the team and should displace Gary Guyton as the starter.

Taylor Price, WR – Ohio – Price is a speedster who will help the Patriots’ vertical game, which suffered throughout 2009.  His production at the University of Ohio was limited as they were a run-oriented team with QB issues, but he impressed many with a great performance at the Senior Bowl.  At 6’0”, 204 lbs, he is adequately sized for a receiver.  He should be able to start opposite Randy Moss filling the role the Pats had hope Joey Galloway would, with Julian Edelman manning the slot until Wes Welker’s return.  He will also provide insurance for Moss, should he choose to leave the team when his contract expires at the end of 2010. 

Aaron Hernandez, TE – Florida – The Pats’ 4^th round pick, Hernandez has been lauded as the best pass-catching TE in the draft.  He was the recipient of the Mackey Award for being the nation’s top tight end in 2009.  His blocking skills may be suspect, but because of his receiving acumen, they can move him around in the backfield as an H-back type, or split him out to take advantage of slower linebackers, much like the Colts do with Dallas Clark.  His skills will attract a lot of attention and create opportunities underneath for the likes of Welker, Edelman, and Kevin Faulk.  

The Patriots were able to fill many of their needs in the 2010 draft, and also secured the Carolina Panthers’ 2^nd round pick in 2011, which along with the Oakland Raiders’ 2011 first rounder once again gives them 4 picks in the first two rounds.  The Pats seemed to have a very good draft on paper, but it remains to be seen if they can keep up with the Jets and the Dolphins to a lesser degree.  Regardless, there will be more weapons at Tom Brady’s disposal, and the run defense should be improved at the very least.

Patriots QB Tom Brady

Coming off an extremely disappointing season, the New England Patriots will look to upgrade in many areas for the 2010 season.  Boston-area fans will be happy to know that the Pats have 4 selections in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, and because of the 2010 uncapped season, they could break the bank for a big-time free agent acquisition.  There are many holes to fill on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.  Here are the team’s most dire needs as the 2010 offseason kicks off.

Pass Rushing DE/OLB

The Patriots inability to pressure the quarterback last season was a major reason for their losses vs. the Colts, Broncos, and Saints last season.  Both leading pass-rushers from last year Tully Banta-Cain (9.5 sacks) and Derrick Burgess (5 sacks) are free-agents in 2010.  The Patriots will be almost forced to keep at last one of them, with the smart money on Banta-Cain, who knows Bill Belichick’s system more thoroughly than Burgess.  Look for the Pats to upgrade with a free-agent signing like the Cardinals’ OLB Karlos Dansby, or to address this early in the draft with a player like Michigan’s Brandon Graham or Texas’ Sergio Kindle. 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

With Wes Welker’s status up in the air for 2010, the need for another legitimate target for Tom Brady has become all the more pressing.  Tight End Ben Watson also figures to leave in free agency.  There are a slew of restricted free-agents available such as Dallas’ Miles Austin, San Diego’s Vincent Jackson, and Denver’s Brandon Marshall.  However, signing one of these receivers will cost both a 1^st and 3^rd round pick, so the Patriots would more likely go in the direction of an unrestricted free agent like Kevin Walter or Derrick Mason.  They will also need some help via the draft.  Notre Dame’s Golden Tate and USC’s Damian Williams come to mind for second-round options.  Some mock drafts have the Patriots selecting Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham in the 1^st, which could be unlikely due to more pressing needs. 

Running Back

The Patriots have not had a 1,000 yard rusher since Corey Dillon in 2004.  While last years’ signing of Fred Taylor looked like a steal, the fact is that he’s not getting any younger, and can’t stay on the field.  Laurence Maroney may have finally fumbled his way out of town after numerous chances to impress.  There will be free agents available such as Larry Johnson, and possibly LaDainian Tomlinson, but they have also hit the dreaded age of 30 for backs.  With 3 second round picks, expect one of them to be invested in a possible solution, but don’t be surprised if they spend a 1^st-rounder on some one like Clemson’s C.J. Spiller or California’s Jahvid Best to take the pressure off the passing game.

Budding Rivalry

If Boston sports fans are irritated at seeing the New York Jets in Sunday’s AFC Championship game, they should quickly become used to the idea that the New England Patriots will more than likely finish behind Gang Green next season. While the Jets are seemingly riding a wave of confidence spurred by their boisterous rookie head coach, and the Patriots suffer from an apparent “lack of leadership”, the truth is that the differences in the two franchises are much deeper.

Truth #1 – The Jets have drafted better than the Patriots in the last 4 years
The Patriots’ draft philosophy has always been to accumulate as many draft picks as possible to gain depth on their roster, but in the last few years there have been many misses. In the last 4 drafts, the Pats have picked up only 3 legitimate NFL starters, in Jerod Mayo, Brandon Merriweather and Sebastian Vollmer. Only 3 out of 38 total picks. Busts include Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson. So many choices, so little return.

In contrast, since 2006, the Jets have picked up arguably the best corner in the league in Darelle Revis, two pro-bowl caliber offensive linemen in D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, two developing offensive weapons in running back Shonn Greene and tight end Dustin Keller, not to mention their franchise quarterback Mark Sanchez. Also in this mix is tow solid player in DB Dwight Lowery and LB David Harris, as well as third down-back Leon Washington, and return man Brad Smith. All this was done with just 23 picks.

Truth #2 – The Jets have had a bigger impact from their free agents
When the Patriots signed LB Adalius Thomas in 2007, they believed they were getting an all-around stud. Instead, they ended up with a malcontent whose best year was 2007 recording 6.5 sacks.

He had 11.5 with Baltimore the previous year. Also billed to be able to play inside, New England had to keep signing Junior Seau for Thomas’ inability to do so. Thomas will more than likely but released this offseason. Other free agent busts that come to mind include CB’s Deltha O’Neal and Shawn Springs. In fairness to New England, the signing of Leigh Bodden was a solid move.

In the past 2 years, the Jets managed to pick up LB’s Calvin Pace and Bart Scott who have helped the Jets’ defense become the best in all of the NFL. They are both fairly young (29) and should be able to keep the Jets in contention for the next few years.

Truth #3- The Patriots best players aren’t getting any younger or healthier
Next year, Tom Brady will be entering his 11th season and will turn 33. Randy Moss will be in his 13th year and also turn 33. Kevin Faulk will be 34, and Wes Welker, although young at 29, will be returning from ACL and MCL surgery.

Even Bill Belichick is getting up there as he approaches 60. The Jets top playmakers such as Revis and Greene seem to be entering their prime, while the Patriots’ best are entering their twilight years. This is a young man’s game. If New England does not get smarter about their personnel choices this year, and replenish their corps with legitimate young talent, winning the AFC East may be the least of their worries.